BURL (2025 - Q2)

Release Date: Aug 28, 2025

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Stock Data provided by Financial Modeling Prep

Current Financial Performance

BURL Q2 2025 Financial Highlights

10%
Total Sales Growth
5%
Comp Store Sales Growth
$1.72
Adjusted EPS
+39%
6.0%
Adjusted EBIT Margin
+1.2%

Key Financial Metrics

Margins & Inventory Metrics

43.7%
Gross Margin
60 bps
Merchandise Margin Expansion
30 bps
Freight Expense Improvement
Down 30 bps
Adjusted SG&A Costs
50% of total inventory
Reserve Inventory
Down 8% YoY
Comp Store Inventory

Total Liquidity

$1.7B

Includes $748M cash, $946M ABL availability

Store Count

1,138 stores

23 net new stores in Q2

Period Comparison Analysis

Total Sales Growth

10%
Current
Previous:6%
66.7% QoQ

Total Sales Growth

10%
Current
Previous:13%
23.1% YoY

Comp Store Sales Growth

5%
Current
Previous:Flat

Comp Store Sales Growth

5%
Current
Previous:5%

Adjusted EPS

$1.72
Current
Previous:$1.67
3% QoQ

Adjusted EPS

$1.72
Current
Previous:$1.24
38.7% YoY

Adjusted EBIT Margin

6.0%
Current
Previous:6.1%
1.6% QoQ

Adjusted EBIT Margin

6.0%
Current
Previous:4.8%
25% YoY

Earnings Performance & Analysis

Q2 Adjusted EPS vs Guidance

Actual:$1.72
Estimate:Up to $1.30
0

Q1 Adjusted EPS vs Guidance

Actual:$1.67
Estimate:About $1.37
0

Financial Guidance & Outlook

Full Year Comp Sales Growth

1% to 2%

Full Year Total Sales Growth

7% to 8%

Full Year Adjusted EBIT Margin

Up 20 to 40 bps

Full Year Adjusted EPS

$9.19 to $9.59

Q3 Comp Sales Growth

Flat to 2%

Q3 Total Sales Growth

5% to 7%

Q3 EBIT Margin

Down 20 bps to Flat

Q3 EPS Guidance

$1.50 to $1.60

Q4 Comp Sales Growth

Flat to 2%

Q4 Total Sales Growth

7% to 9%

Q4 EBIT Margin

Down 10 bps to Up 30 bps

Q4 EPS Guidance

$4.30 to $4.60

Surprises

Q2 EPS Significantly Above Guidance

39% above prior year

$1.72 EPS, $0.42 above high end of guidance

EPS of $1.72 was $0.42 above the high end of our guidance range, representing a 39% increase versus prior year.

Operating Margin Expansion

120 basis points increase

Operating margin expanded 120 basis points versus last year, driven by stronger merchandise margins and expense efficiencies.

Reserve Inventory Increase

43% increase year-over-year

Reserve inventory at 50% of total, up 43% year-over-year

Reserve inventory was 50% of total inventory versus 41% last year, reflecting strategic pre-tariff buying.

Adjusted EBIT Margin Above Guidance

6% adjusted EBIT margin, 120 basis points higher than last year

Adjusted EBIT margin was 6%, well above guidance range of down 30 basis points to flat.

Strong Comp Sales Growth Despite Tariff Headwinds

5% comp store sales growth

Despite tariff-related supply interruptions in some categories, comp store sales grew 5%, exceeding guidance.

New Store Cohorts Outperforming Expectations

New stores comping ahead of chain average

Recent new store cohorts are comping well ahead of original expectations, contributing to comp sales growth.

Impact Quotes

Our exceptional Q2 performance is directly attributed to Burlington 2.0 initiatives, which are still early in their impact but expected to grow over time.

Merchandising 2.0 gave our buyers the visibility and tools to rapidly pivot away from high-tariff categories and remix margin plans effectively.

We manage our business cautiously but are ready to chase a stronger sales trend, leveraging strong merchandise supply and reserve inventory.

We raised full year guidance factoring in incremental tariff pressure, assuming most but not all of the pressure can be offset by savings and assortment adjustments.

Our store standards improvements have driven higher customer service scores, operational metrics, and associate engagement at historical highs.

Our elevation strategy trades the customer up by offering better value at higher price points within a good, better, best context.

Notable Topics Discussed

  • Management attributes the strong Q2 sales and earnings to the successful execution of Burlington 2.0 initiatives, which include Merchandising 2.0, Stores 2.0, and new store openings.
  • These initiatives have enabled rapid response to external headwinds such as tariffs, demonstrating strategic agility.
  • Merchandising 2.0 provided enhanced visibility and tools that allowed the company to pivot assortments quickly amid tariff disruptions.
  • Stores 2.0 has significantly improved customer experience, operational efficiency, and associate engagement, contributing to a 5% comp store sales growth.
  • The company expects the impact of Burlington 2.0 to grow over time, supporting long-term performance despite external uncertainties.
  • Management highlighted that despite a 145% tariff on Chinese imports earlier in the year, the company managed to deliver 5% comp growth in Q2.
  • Burlington responded by remixing assortments, raising retails selectively, and accelerating savings initiatives to offset tariff impacts.
  • Reserve inventory was bought at pre-tariff prices, providing a buffer against rising costs and supply disruptions.
  • The company’s strong merchandise availability and ability to find great deals in reserve inventory demonstrate supply chain resilience.
  • Tariff pressures are acknowledged as real, but proactive cost management and offsetting actions have mitigated their impact on margins.
  • Burlington has redesigned about half of its stores to improve layout, signage, and fixtures, making stores more modern, fun, and easier to shop.
  • Customer service scores are at all-time highs, reflecting successful implementation of new standards and operational improvements.
  • Store standards improvements are driven by higher expectations, better tools, and increased accountability among store managers and associates.
  • The store redesign has resulted in a sales lift in retrofitted stores, supporting the company’s off-price value proposition.
  • The company plans to complete the store redesign across the chain in 2026, expecting continued positive customer feedback and sales growth.
  • In Q2, Burlington opened 30 new stores, bringing the total to 1,138, with a goal of 100 net new stores for 2025.
  • New stores join the comp base 15 months after opening and tend to outperform expectations, providing a sales tailwind.
  • Recent cohorts of new stores have shown very strong comp sales growth, significantly contributing to the 5% overall store sales growth.
  • Management expects the increasing mix of younger stores to further boost comp sales in the coming years.
  • The strategic focus on new store openings is part of Burlington’s long-term growth plan to expand market share.
  • Burlington’s elevation strategy involves raising fashion content, quality, and brand recognition to trade customers up within a good-better-best framework.
  • This strategy has resonated with customers, as evidenced by improved merchandise margins and stronger sales.
  • The company aims to ensure every store offers a compelling value proposition with better merchandise at accessible prices.
  • Management plans to further reinforce the elevation strategy for the upcoming holiday season.
  • The focus on higher-quality, fashionable merchandise is helping Burlington differentiate itself in the off-price retail space.
  • Q2 performance was broad-based across demographic groups, with lower-income and Hispanic customers performing well.
  • Stores in high-Hispanic trade areas, excluding Puerto Rico and southern border stores, showed sales slightly above the chain average.
  • Lower-income stores continued to perform strongly, indicating resilience of this key customer segment.
  • Management emphasized that value remains the primary driver for younger shoppers and families, especially in juniors and kids’ apparel.
  • The company is actively analyzing demographic data to tailor assortments and marketing strategies for sustained growth.
  • Management described store standards improvements as extraordinary, leading to higher customer satisfaction and operational efficiency.
  • Enhanced leadership, reporting tools, and accountability have driven store cleanliness, organization, and overall shopping experience.
  • Associate engagement scores have risen sharply, reflecting successful cultural and operational changes.
  • The company’s focus on store standards is part of its broader strategy to modernize and differentiate its retail environment.
  • These operational improvements are expected to support continued sales growth and margin expansion.
  • Comp store inventory was managed down 8%, supporting faster turns and lower markdowns amid tariff headwinds.
  • Reserve inventory increased significantly, now comprising 50% of total inventory, bought at pre-tariff prices.
  • Reserve merchandise provides flexibility to respond to sales trends and external shocks, acting as a strategic buffer.
  • Management emphasized that reserve inventory quality and value are high, enabling quick deployment when needed.
  • The company plans to continue managing inventory tightly while maintaining a strong reserve to capitalize on market opportunities.

Key Insights:

  • Full year adjusted EPS guidance increased to $9.19 to $9.59, up from prior $8.70 to $9.30.
  • Incremental tariff pressure in back half of year expected but mostly offset by savings and assortment adjustments.
  • Maintained Q3 and Q4 comparable store sales guidance of 0% to 2%, reflecting cautious outlook due to external risks.
  • Prepared to chase stronger sales trends if weather or market conditions improve, leveraging reserve inventory.
  • Q3 guidance includes flat to 2% comp sales growth, 5% to 7% total sales growth, and operating margin down 20 basis points to flat.
  • Q4 guidance expects flat to 2% comp sales growth, 7% to 9% total sales growth, and EBIT margin ranging from -10 to +30 basis points.
  • Raised full year 2025 guidance: comp sales now expected to grow 1% to 2%, total sales 7% to 8%, and adjusted EBIT margin to increase 20-40 basis points.
  • Burlington 2.0 initiatives (Merchandising 2.0, Stores 2.0, new store impact) credited for strong Q2 performance and expected to drive long-term growth.
  • Invested in a highly automated West Coast distribution center to support operational efficiency.
  • Merchandising 2.0 enabled rapid response to tariff disruptions by pivoting assortment away from high-tariff categories and remixing margin plans.
  • New store cohorts comping ahead of chain average, contributing to comp sales growth and expected to provide a growing tailwind.
  • Reserve inventory strategy used to buy pre-tariff merchandise, providing flexibility to chase sales trends.
  • Stores 2.0 improved store standards, customer service scores, and operational metrics, with half the chain retrofitted to new store design.
  • Supply chain savings initiatives and expense management programs driving SG&A leverage and margin expansion.
  • Acknowledgement of economic headwinds impacting price sensitivity, especially among lower-income and Hispanic customers.
  • Commitment to nimble, flexible business management to navigate uncertain macroeconomic environment.
  • Confidence in ability to flex and chase sales trends supported by strong merchandise supply and reserve inventory.
  • Focus on delivering value through elevated assortment strategy balancing fashion, quality, brand, and price.
  • Long-term confidence in Burlington 2.0 initiatives to sustain market share gains and profitability.
  • Management emphasizes cautious optimism due to external risks like weather and tariffs despite strong Q2 results.
  • Strong leadership in stores driving higher standards, associate engagement, and productivity improvements.
  • Capital structure strengthened with $500 million term loan for distribution center and upsized $1 billion ABL facility.
  • Competitors selectively raising prices; Burlington cautious on own price increases due to customer price sensitivity.
  • Inventory strategy focuses on faster turns and right content in stores, with reserve inventory providing flexibility.
  • Lower-income and Hispanic customer segments performing well, with no current signs of economic stress.
  • Management confirmed Q2 comp sales beat was due to strong execution and reserve inventory, with cautious guidance for back half.
  • Tariff pressures expected to continue but mostly offset by assortment remixing, vendor negotiations, and expense savings.
  • Competitive landscape includes restrained price increases by peers, with off-price positioning providing advantage.
  • Macroeconomic risks include inflation, employment, and consumer outlook uncertainties affecting retail demand.
  • Physical inventory counts showed lower shortage levels, contributing to margin expansion.
  • Reserve inventory increased 43% year-over-year, reflecting strategic buying ahead of tariffs.
  • Tariffs on imports from China reached 145% in April, causing supply interruptions in certain home categories.
  • Weather in Midwest and Northeast caused a slow start to Q2 but normalized in June and July, impacting outerwear sales sensitivity.
  • Associate engagement scores have risen sharply, reflecting successful cultural and operational changes.
  • Back-to-school business showed strong early momentum with solid August trends, driven by value-focused merchandising.
  • Category strength broad-based with beauty, accessories, shoes, and apparel performing well; home category softer.
  • Interest expense forecast updated to $50 million, reflecting capital investments and hedging strategies.
  • Regional sales strongest in Southeast and Northeast; Midwest was weakest due to weather headwinds.
  • Store redesign and improved shopping experience positively received by customers, driving sales lift.
Complete Transcript:
BURL:2025 - Q2
Operator:
Hello, everyone. My name is Ellie. I'm going to be your operator, and welcome to the Burlington Stores, Inc. Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference and Webcast Call. Please note that this call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I'd now like to hand the call over to David Glick, Group Senior Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations. You may now go ahead, please. David J.
David J. Glick:
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate everyone's participation in today's conference call to discuss Burlington's fiscal 2025 second quarter operating results. Our presenters today are Michael O'Sullivan, our Chief Executive Officer; and Kristin Wolfe, our EVP and Chief Financial Officer. Before I turn the call over to Michael, I would like to inform listeners that this call may not be transcribed, recorded or broadcast without our expressed permission. A replay of the call will be available until September 4, 2025. We take no responsibility for inaccuracies that may appear in transcripts of this call by third parties. Our remarks and the Q&A that follows are copyrighted today by Burlington Stores. Remarks made on this call concerning future expectations, events, strategies, objectives, trends or projected financial results are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those that are projected in such forward-looking statements. Such risks and uncertainties include those that are described in the company's 10-K and in our other filings with the SEC, all of which are expressly incorporated herein by reference. Please note that the financial results and expectations we discuss today are on a continuing operations basis. Reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures we discuss today to GAAP measures are included in today's press release. As a reminder, as indicated in this morning's press release, all profitability metrics discussed in this call exclude costs associated with bankruptcy acquired leases. These pretax costs amounted to $11 million and $3 million, respectively, during the fiscal second quarters of 2025 and 2024, and $17 million and $9 million, respectively, for the first half of 2025 and 2024. Now here's Michael.
Michael B. O'Sullivan:
Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. I would like to cover 3 topics this morning. Firstly, I will briefly review our second quarter results. Then I will discuss our third quarter and updated full year guidance. And lastly, we believe that our exceptional performance in the second quarter can be directly attributed to Burlington 2.0 initiatives that we have pursued over the last few years. So I would like to spend some time this morning providing additional color on some of these initiatives. Okay, let's talk about our second quarter results. We are pleased with our very strong sales performance in the quarter. Total sales grew 10% on top of 13% total sales growth last year. These double-digit growth rates demonstrate the power of our business to consistently take market share even in an uncertain retail environment. In Q2, these market share gains were driven by new store openings and by very strong comp store sales growth. Comp store sales increased 5% on top of 5% comp sales growth last year. The trend in Q2 started out slowly with weather in the Midwest and Northeast in May being cooler than last year, but then our trend picked up in June and July as the weather normalized. We are also very pleased with our strong earnings performance in Q2. Our operating margin expanded 120 basis points versus last year. This was a very high-quality earnings beat driven by stronger merchandise margins and expense efficiencies across the P&L. Our EPS of $1.72 was $0.42 above the high end of our guidance range. Let me move on to the outlook for the rest of the year. Despite our very strong performance in the second quarter, we remain concerned about the external outlook for the back half. We are maintaining our comp guidance of 0% to 2% for Q3 and Q4. Let me comment on Q3 specifically. As we have discussed in the past, our strong heritage in outerwear means that we are more sensitive than most retailers to seasonal weather variations in the third quarter. If temperatures in late September through October turn out to be warmer or cooler than last year, this can have a big impact on our trend. We have terrific outerwear buys in reserve inventory, so we are well positioned to chase a stronger trend if that happens. We will manage the business cautiously and see how the trend develops. I am not planning to comment in detail on the fourth quarter at this point. We'll have more to say in November. But it is worth calling out that in Q4, we will be up against 6% comp sales growth from the fourth quarter of last year. So the upside in Q4 is probably limited. Moving on to earnings. We are raising our full year guidance and passing along most of the Q2 earnings beat. We are not flowing through the entire earnings beat. This is because of incremental tariff pressure in the back half. Tariffs for most countries are higher now than when we last discussed earnings guidance on our Q1 call in May. Our updated full year guidance assumes that we will be able to offset most, but not all, of this incremental tariff pressure. I would like to move on now and talk about the direct link that we see between our very strong Q2 sales and earnings results and the key Burlington 2.0 initiatives that we have pursued over the last few years. Many of these initiatives are in the early stages of their potential impact. We are excited because we expect this impact to grow over time and to drive our longer-term performance. I will focus on 3 items: Merchandising 2.0, Stores 2.0 and the impact of recently opened stores once they join the comp base. I will start with Merchandising 2.0. As you know, Merchandising 2.0 is our collective name for the new systems, processes and tools that we have developed and rolled out to enable our buyers and planners to more effectively and rapidly respond to changes in the external environment and the sales trend. The last several months and the uncertainty created by tariffs have provided a showcase for the power of these capabilities. In the weeks leading up to the tariff announcements in early April, we began to make multiple detailed revisions to our assortment plans for Q2 and the fall season, pivoting away from categories with the greatest tariff exposure to those with less tariff impact and with stronger, more reliable supply. These forecast provisions and scenarios also involved remixing and remodeling our margin plans to find offsets to the impact of tariffs. It seems like a long time ago now, but in April and early May, the tariff on imports from China was 145%. This rate represented an effective embargo on Chinese imports, and it created an interruption or an air pocket, if you like, to the flow of receipts across the retail industry. There are some merchandise categories, for example, decorative bedding, cookware and toys, but there are very few alternative sources of supply outside of China. In these merchandise categories, the interruption in imports in April and May impacted inventory levels across the retail industry in the second quarter. These categories were a drag on the sales trend in our home business during the quarter. But what I am really excited about is that despite this headwind, we were able to deliver 5% comp growth across the store. Our buyers and planners deserve huge credit. They did an amazing job rapidly responding and pivoting into other businesses. The key point, though, is that Merchandising 2.0 gave them the visibility and the tools to do this. Let me move on to Stores 2.0. Historically, the customer perception of Burlington was a big, old, difficult-to-shop stores, consistent with our Coat Factory heritage. But that is not who we are anymore. Over the last few years, you have heard us talk a lot about the actions we are taking to drive incredible value. We've talked less about stores, but in parallel, we've also been working very hard to improve the shopping experience. This starts with the standards that we set for ourselves, our store managers and our field teams. It also involves new systems, processes, tools and reports to drive consistency and efficiency. In the past year, we have seen the impact of these programs really start to take off. Our customer service scores are running at historical all-time highs, and we have seen improvements across all major operational metrics. Our store teams have really embraced these changes and our associate engagement levels have risen sharply. In addition, as I mentioned during our call in May, we have reimagined and redesigned our store layout, signage and fixturing. The objective of this redesign is to make our stores feel new and more exciting, easier to shop, more fun, more off-price and more Burlington 2.0. At this point, we have retrofitted about half of the chain to this new design. Customer feedback has been very positive, and we are seeing a nice sales lift in these stores. This lift helped drive our 5% comp growth in the second quarter. There is more to come as we retrofit the rest of the chain in 2026. Okay, let me move on to new stores. In fact, I want to talk specifically about the impact of recently opened stores once they turn comp. Our new stores join our comp base 15 months after opening. As we've discussed in the past, we expect new stores to ramp up over time and to comp ahead of the chain for their first few years. That is indeed what is happening. When we analyze comp stores that were opened over the last several years, we see very strong comp sales growth rates, well ahead of our original expectations. Again, these recent new store cohorts helped drive our very strong 5% comp sales growth in the second quarter. This is very exciting because as we look ahead over the next few years, the mix of younger stores in our comp base is going to grow. So we anticipate that the impact of this comp tailwind will increase over time. Okay. At this point, I would like to turn the call over to Kristin. Kristin?
Kristin Wolfe:
Thank you, Michael, and good morning, everyone. I plan to cover a couple of topics this morning. I will start with some additional color on our second quarter performance. Then I will share details on our updated guidance. Starting with the second quarter, total sales grew 10%, while comp store sales increased 5%, well above the high end of our guidance range. Traffic was flattish in the quarter. Our comp was driven by a higher transaction size. Our average unit retail was up mid-single digits versus last year. The gross margin rate for the second quarter was 43.7%, an increase of 90 basis points versus last year. This was driven by a 60-basis point increase in merchandise margin and a 30-basis point decrease in freight expense. On merchandise margin, the 60-basis point expansion was driven by improvement in shortage and lower markdowns, which more than offset the lower markup due to tariffs. While there was significant pressure on markup from tariffs in the quarter, we took several effective offsetting actions to reduce the impact. The net result of these actions was that our Q2 markup was only modestly lower than last year. The second quarter product sourcing costs were $209 million versus $191 million in the second quarter of 2024. Product sourcing costs were flat as a percentage of sales compared to last year. Adjusted SG&A costs in Q2 decreased 30 basis points versus last year, driven by savings initiatives primarily in stores and leverage on higher comp sales. Q2 adjusted EBIT margin was 6%, 120 basis points higher than last year, which was well above our guidance range of down 30 basis points to flat. Our adjusted earnings per share in Q2 was $1.72, which came in significantly above our guidance range. This represents a 39% increase versus the prior year. At the end of the quarter, comparable store inventories were down 8% versus the end of the second quarter 2024. Our reserve inventory was 50% of our total inventory versus 41% of our inventory last year. In dollar terms, our reserve inventory was up 43% compared to last year, reflecting the great deals we were able to make to get ahead of tariffs. We are very pleased with the quality of the merchandise and the values and brands that we have in reserve. As Michael said earlier, we are well positioned to chase if the sales trend in Q3 turns out to be stronger than guidance. During the quarter, we raised $500 million in additional term loan debt, primarily to fund the purchase of our highly automated West Coast distribution center. Additionally, we upsized and extended our ABL facility in Q2, which is now a $1 billion line that matures in July of 2030. We ended the quarter with approximately $1.7 billion in total liquidity, which consisted of $748 million in cash, and $946 million in availability on our ABL, with no outstanding borrowings at the end of the quarter on the ABL. During the quarter, we repurchased $26 million in common stock. And at the end of Q2, we had $632 million remaining on our share repurchase authorization. In the second quarter, we opened 23 net new stores, bringing our store count at the end of the quarter to 1,138 stores. This includes 30 new store openings, 4 relocations and 3 closings. We continue to expect to open 100 net new stores in fiscal 2025. I will now move on to discuss our outlook for the full fiscal year as well as for the third quarter and fourth quarter of fiscal 2025. Based on our strong performance in the second quarter, we are increasing our full year fiscal 2025 guidance for comp sales, total sales, adjusted EBIT margin and adjusted earnings per share as follows: Comparable store sales are now expected to increase 1% to 2%, with total sales to increase 7% to 8% for the full year 2025. This revised full year guidance factors in our year-to-date comp store sales as well as our guidance for comparable store sales to increase 0% to 2% for the balance of fiscal '25. We now expect our full year adjusted EBIT margins to increase by 20 to 40 basis points. This is up from our most recent guidance for an increase of flat to 30 basis points. This updated margin outlook now translates to a full year 2025 adjusted earnings per share range of $9.19 to $9.59, up from our original guidance of $8.70 to $9.30. For the third quarter, we expect comparable store sales growth of flat to 2% and a total sales increase of 5% to 7%. This would result in operating margin of down 20 basis points to flat versus the third quarter of 2024. This translates to earnings per share guidance for the third quarter of $1.50 to $1.60. Our third quarter guidance excludes approximately $10 million of expenses associated with bankruptcy acquired leases. For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, we expect comparable store sales growth of flat to 2% and total sales to increase 7% to 9%. EBIT margins to range from a decrease of 10 basis points to an increase of 30 basis points and adjusted earnings per share in the range of $4.30 to $4.60. Our fourth quarter guidance excludes approximately $7 million of expenses associated with bankruptcy acquired leases. I will now turn the call back to Michael.
Michael B. O'Sullivan:
Thank you, Kristin. Before I turn the call over to the operator for your questions, I would like to emphasize 3 key points from this morning's discussion. Firstly, we are very pleased with our exceptional performance in Q2. These very strong results demonstrate the power of our business to profitably gain market share even in an uncertain retail environment. Secondly, based on our very strong Q2 performance, we are raising our full year guidance. But the external outlook remains uncertain, and we see risks in the back half. We are managing our business cautiously, but we are ready to chase the sales trend if it turns out to be stronger. Thirdly, we believe that our exceptional performance in Q2 can be attributed to Burlington 2.0 initiatives that we have pursued over the last few years. We are excited because the impact of these initiatives is still in the early stages, and we anticipate that it will grow over time. Now I would like to turn the call over for your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Matthew Boss of JPMorgan.
Matthew Robert Boss:
Congrats on a great quarter. So Michael, on your 5% comp in the second quarter, which is a 10% on a 2-year stack, how best to think about your back half guide, which implies a material drop off from there? Should we think of this as your usual playbook to plan conservatively and chase, or are you seeing something that's causing you concern about sales in the back half of the year?
Michael B. O'Sullivan:
Thank you for the question. The direct answer to your question is this is just our standard playbook. We are planning and managing our business cautiously, and we are ready to chase a stronger trend. I should add that we are especially confident in our ability to do this right now because merchandise supply is very strong and we also have some great deals packed away in reserve inventory. And add to that, we've just demonstrated in the second quarter that we are very good at flexing up and chasing a stronger sales trend. So with all that, it makes sense to stick with our standard playbook, and we're very confident in our ability to execute it. With that said though, I want to be careful in answering your question. I don't want to understate the external risks. We've just reported an extraordinarily strong Q2, but as you know, in our business, you can't just extrapolate from that. External headwinds can emerge in individual quarters to throw off the trend. As I mentioned in the remarks, the most obvious risk is weather. Until recently, Coats were literally our middle name. I love this heritage when September and October are colder than last year, but not so much when they are unseasonably warm. Now on a multiyear basis, the weather averages out. But in an individual quarter, in an individual year, it matters. Now of course, the risks in the back half are not just limited to weather. There are plenty of macroeconomic and other external variables that can have an impact on retail sales, higher employment, rising inflation, changes in consumer outlook. For the back half of this year, all of those risks are real. At a high level, I would say there are many experts and analysts who are predicting the tariffs are going to have a significant and potentially negative effect on the economy. Those effects have not really happened yet, and they're highly, highly unpredictable. The good news for us is that as an off-price retailer, we don't have to take a position on these risks. We don't have to predict the future. What we have to do is manage our business to be nimble and flexible so we can react no matter what happens. That is our standard playbook. It's what our standard playbook is designed to do. So at the risk of sounding like a broken record, we will manage our business cautiously and aggressively chase the trend.
Matthew Robert Boss:
Great. And then a follow-up for Kristin to stay on guidance. So it looks like you passed most of your second quarter upside through to the updated annual guide. Could you walk us through the puts and takes on your new fall guidance, impact of tariffs, offsets you have in place? And just any color on the difference between the third and fourth quarter operating margin year-over-year?
Kristin Wolfe:
It's a very good question. Let me split the answer into 2 parts. First, on tariffs. As Michael mentioned in the prepared remarks, we do have incremental tariff risk in the fall. Tariffs for many countries are at a higher rate now than they were when we last issued guidance back in May. And our updated guidance assumes that we will offset most of but not all of this additional tariff pressure. Essentially, our fall guidance reflects our best estimation of the net impacts of tariffs. So tariffs put significant pressure on markup, but we've worked very hard to identify offsetting actions. These offsets include continuously working and negotiating with our vendor partners on costs, adjusting and remixing our assortment, selectively raising retails, driving a faster inventory turn to drive lower markdowns, accelerating planned savings initiatives and then aggressively going after incremental expense savings across the P&L. On the second part of your question, I can provide some additional color on the specific quarters. For the third quarter, we are assuming gross margin rate to be lower year-over-year due to the impact of tariffs on merch margins. This should more than offset modest year-on-year favorability in freight. And product sourcing costs, we are expecting supply chain savings initiatives to drive leverage. And in SG&A, we expect that our savings initiatives will enable us to show some modest leverage on the high end of our flat to 2% comp outlook. And finally, for Q4, the storyline is similar, but there are a couple of line items that are more pronounced. We're expecting more pressure on merch margin from tariffs in the fourth quarter. And offsetting that pressure, we do expect supply chain savings initiatives to drive leverage and product sourcing costs and greater SG&A leverage due to savings initiatives, but also the lapping of last year's higher incentive comp accrual in the fourth quarter of '24. So because of that, we expected EBIT expansion to be somewhat higher in Q4 relative to Q3.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Ike Boruchow of Wells Fargo.
Irwin Bernard Boruchow:
I think just first question, a bigger picture for me, is about pricing. At an industry level, maybe Michael or Kristin, I'm curious, what have you guys seen in terms of competitors taking up AURs? What are you expecting in the back half, and I guess, what's the potential to raise prices in the fall as a way to offset some of this tariff pressure you're talking about?
Michael B. O'Sullivan:
Thank you for the question. On the first part of your question, industry-level pricing, the answer is, yes, we are hearing, and in some cases, we are seeing that competitors are taking up retail prices. So far, though, I would say that those price increases have been quite selective and quite restrained. I suspect there are a few reasons for that. Part of it may just be the time lag between imports arriving in the country and those goods showing up in stores. But also my sense is that wholesalers and retailers have been reluctant to make decisions on raising prices until they know what the final tariff rates are going to be. Now it does feel like there is more clarity on this now than there was a couple of months ago. So it wouldn't be surprising if retail prices were to go up across the industry in the back half of the year. Now of course, we know that our customer is very, very price sensitive. We saw what happened with their discretionary spending levels when the cost of living increased in 2022. It was not good for us. So the prospect of higher inflation, especially if it spreads to nondiscretionary categories like groceries, makes us very nervous. And it's another reason to be cautious on the rest of the year. I think that's a good segue to the second part of your question, how are we thinking about the potential to raise our own retails? Now of course, as a business, we need to deal with economic reality. But as a retailer that is focused on delivering value, we also need to tread very, very carefully. The important thing, I think, to understand is that in our business, as an off-price retailer, there is a broader competitive reference set. Our strategy is to offer significantly lower prices than traditional retailers. If those retailers raise prices, then this could provide some relief for us. It could potentially drive additional traffic to our stores or it could take some pressure off our own retails. So the answer to your question is, I think we're going to have to wait and see what impact tariffs have on price levels across the retail industry and then make a decision about our own prices.
Irwin Bernard Boruchow:
Got it. And then maybe, Kristin, a follow-up. On the 1Q call in May, I think you described some expense timing shifts into 2Q, but -- and I think you guided margin flat, but you did really well. I think it was up 120 bps. Just could you walk us through the drivers of the Q2 margin, what you saw in the quarter and basically the drivers of upside?
Kristin Wolfe:
Great. Yes, thanks for the question. We're really pleased with the margin performance in the quarter. The drivers of that expansion were really broad-based, and I think the team did a really nice job executing and tightly managing costs in the quarter. So let me walk through the key drivers. On the top line, the 5% comp, which was 300 basis points above the high end of the guide, this helped drive a faster inventory turn, which drove lower markdowns in the quarter. And secondly, we took physical inventory in Q2 and the results were better than we had planned. This meaningfully contributed to the merch margin increase in the quarter. So lower shortage, combined with lower markdowns from faster turns, more than offset markup pressure from tariffs in the quarter to drive the 60 basis points of merch margin expansion. And as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, markup was only modestly lower than last year because we took several effective actions to reduce the impact of tariffs. So additionally, in gross margins, freight levered 30 basis points. This was really due to savings initiatives in transportation as well as operational efficiencies helped by a higher AUR. Product sourcing costs were slightly better than what we had embedded in our guidance due to savings initiatives in supply chain. And finally, SG&A. SG&A levered 30 basis points despite those Q1 expense timing shifts you referenced. The drivers of the SG&A were twofold. First, leverage on the higher comp sales, and then two, operational savings initiatives we put in place to offset some of the tariff pressures. So taking all these on ends together, drove 120 basis points of EBIT expansion in the quarter.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Lorraine Hutchinson of Bank of America.
Lorraine Corrine Maikis Hutchinson:
Michael, I'm wondering what trends you're seeing with different demographic groups. The second quarter was very strong, but is there any additional color you can share about lower-income consumers, Hispanic customers or any other segments that stand out in the data?
Michael B. O'Sullivan:
Sure. Thank you for the question. Overall, I would describe our comp performance in Q2 as broad-based. Now as usual, in Q2, we monitored and we analyzed the sales trend of our stores based on the demographics of their local trade area. And between the first quarter and the second quarter, we saw an improvement in trend in all demographic trade areas. Now let me talk specifically about the lower-income customer. The lower-income customer, as you know, is especially important to us. When we look at stores in lower-income trade areas, they continue to perform very well with comp sales growth just above the chain average. Now lower-income stores have performed well for us for the last few years, and that strength is continuing. Let me move on to the Hispanic customer. Hispanic customer also, as you know, very important to us. My answer here is a little more nuanced. When you look at stores in high-Hispanic trade areas, to make the data meaningful, it's important to pull out Puerto Rico. Our Puerto Rico stores have been performing very, very strongly. So they kind of distort the number a little bit. It also makes sense to pull out our stores on the southern border. In contrast, those are high-volume stores. But given the issues at the border, they've been comping below the chain this year. So what you're left with is still a large group of stores that are in high-Hispanic trade areas, but exclude Puerto Rico and the southern border. And the bottom line is, in Q2, the trend in those stores was also slightly above the chain. Now the data I've just described, I think is very encouraging. I know that investors have been concerned understandably about lower- income shoppers and about Hispanic shoppers. Those shoppers are very important to us, and they're very sensitive to economic headwinds such as inflation. But based on our second quarter data, we are not seeing any issues at this point.
Lorraine Corrine Maikis Hutchinson:
And then how would you characterize off-price availability overall? Do you have any concern about merchandise availability in the second half? And what are you seeing from the vendors in terms of tariff-related cost pressure? Does that pressure create risk to merchandise supply or to merchandise margin in the second half?
Michael B. O'Sullivan:
Yes, it's a good question, Lorraine. I'll start with availability with availability -- with merchandise availability. Overall, merchandise availability in the off-price channel is very strong right now across the store. As I mentioned in the prepared remarks, there were a few specific categories in home where inventory levels across the industry dipped in Q2, and that was driven by tariff disruption back in April and May. But the situation even in those categories has caught up and is largely back to normal now. More broadly, across the store, I would say that we are seeing plenty of merchandise. And we've been able to take advantage of some great deals that we've packed away in reserve. And most of that reserve inventory, by the way, was bought at pre-tariff pricing. So we're looking forward to flowing those great values to our stores in the back half. Leaving aside reserve, there's strong availability across the board. As evidence of that, actually, I would point to the fact that we were able to chase from our guidance range of 0% to 2% comp in Q2 to an actual comp of 5%. We had no problem finding great deals to fuel that trend. Let me move on to the second part of your question, the cost pressure from tariffs. I know we just crushed margin guidance and earnings expectations in Q2. But I want to emphasize that the cost pressure from tariffs is real. We were only able to drive earnings in Q2 because we rapidly and aggressively took actions to offset that cost pressure. Now as Kristin described earlier, those offsetting actions included a number of things, working closely and negotiating with our vendor partners on cost, adjusting and remixing our assortment, selectively raising retails, driving faster turns to reduce markdowns, accelerating planned savings initiatives and aggressively going after other expense savings across the P&L. As you can see in the numbers, that approach worked very well for us in Q2. So for the back half, assuming tariffs don't increase from their current recently announced levels, we are confident that we can meet or beat our updated guidance. As Kristin said, that updated guidance builds in the additional pressure from tariffs and the impact of numerous offsetting actions and savings that we've identified for the back half.
Operator:
Question comes from the line of John Kernan of TD Cowen.
John David Kernan:
Nice job on the quarter. Couple of questions about inventory following your comments to Lorraine's question. I think the remarks you said that comp store inventory was down 8% at the end of the quarter, but the reserve inventory was up significantly year-over-year. I think it was up to 50% of total inventory. Can you provide any additional commentary on these inventory levels and the composition?
Kristin Wolfe:
Sure. It's Kristin. I'll take that question. Comp store inventory was down at the end of -- down 8% at the end of the second quarter, as we noted. And I'll just provide a little more commentary on comp store inventory. Comp store inventory is what is available to sell in stores. So we manage this inventory level very tightly. It's obviously important for sales and markdowns. We made the deliberate decision in the March/April time frame to plan faster inventory turns in Q2 and for the rest of the year. This is driving lower markdowns and is helping to offset margin pressure from tariffs. And this strategy worked very well in the second quarter. The most important thing about in-store inventory is not necessarily the level, it's the content. So in Q2, we had the right content, and we were able to drive higher sales, faster turns and lower markdowns. And our in-store inventory levels on a comp store basis are planned down for the rest of the year as we continue this strategy. Now to your question about reserve, and Michael spoke to it a few minutes ago, we approach reserve differently. We buy reserve merchandise knowing we're going to pack it away and release it at a later date. And the level of reserve inventory really depends on the deals we find in the market. And this year, to get ahead of tariffs, we encouraged our merchants to buy up great pre-tariff merchandise. And this is what's really driven up the level of reserve inventory. We're really happy with these goods in terms of quality, values and brands that we have in reserve. And apart from enabling great deals, reserve inventory also gives us more flexibility in the case. We know that if we plan our business cautiously, but then the sales trend takes off, we have goods in reserve that we can flow.
John David Kernan:
That's helpful. Thanks. Just a second question on the balance sheet again. David, Kristin, it looks like you were busy in Q2 from a capital structure perspective. Can you walk us through the changes to the debt structure, whether you expect any additional changes in the near and intermediate term? And how should we think about the direction of interest expense?
David J. Glick:
Sure. I'll take that one. Thanks for the question. We took several steps during the quarter to strengthen our balance sheet and enhance our liquidity. First, we raised $500 million in additional term loan debt, primarily to fund the purchase of one of our most automated West Coast DC, we call it the Cactus DC, as well as to retire the 2025 converts, which matured back in April. And in addition, we also extended and upsized our ABL in July. It's now a $1 billion line, up from $900 million, and we extended the maturity by 5 years out to July 2030. Given our growth, we now have the borrowing base to support a bigger line and enhance our liquidity. Now as a reminder, we paid down the ABL to $0 during Q2, and there were no borrowings on the ABL at the end of the quarter. And we don't anticipate borrowing on the ABL for the balance of the year. Related to the term loan, we hedged $300 million of the $500 million issued, and that's keeping our hedge -- total hedge ratio around 65%, and we're able to lock in rates below current SOFR. And given the level of activity in the quarter, we aren't expecting any changes in the near term and continue to expect to return excess cash to shareholders in the form of share repurchases. And we did update our interest expense forecast to $50 million in the quarter. It's a little bit lower based on the decision to purchase our Cactus DC and there was some capitalized interest. And a lot of puts and takes. We can certainly take that offline in our follow-up to walk you through that. But our updated forecast is at $50 million.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Alex Straton of Morgan Stanley.
Alexandra Ann Straton:
Perfect. Congrats on a great quarter. I've got a couple and first one for Michael. Can you maybe provide some color on the improvements that you made in store standards and conditions? And then I have a quick follow-up for Kristin.
Michael B. O'Sullivan:
Thank you. I'm glad you asked this question. I would describe the improvement in standards in our stores over the past couple of years as extraordinary. As I mentioned in the script, customer service scores are running at historical all-time highs, and we've seen significant improvements in all major operating metrics in stores. We've also seen a recent improvement in shortage. And at the same time, our productivity levels in stores have improved. In other words, we're leveraging store payroll. That combination of outcomes, higher store standards and lower store payroll is a remarkable accomplishment. Let me explain how we've done it. It starts with leadership, and I don't mean me. I mean our Head of Stores. She's assembled a terrific team, a combination of internal promotions and external talent. Over the last couple of years, she and this team have set higher expectations for our field leaders, store managers and associates. Those expectations, together with improved tools, better reporting, greater process discipline and a much stronger sense of accountability have driven these great results. I would also add that our store managers and associates have embraced these higher expectations and standards. As we've communicated and rolled out this approach, we've seen significant increases in our associate engagement scores across the chain. The final point I would like to make is that for all the progress that we've made, we know there is still a lot of opportunity. We want every store to be consistently neat, clean and organized. We want them all to enable and bring to life the treasure hunt. That's the core vision that our Head of Stores and her leadership team are going after. We have a long way to go, but it's already clear from the data that our customers like this vision, and they appreciate the improvements that we've made.
Alexandra Ann Straton:
Perfect. That's great color. Maybe for Kristin. Can you just provide a little bit more detail on the shortage favorability to gross margin in the quarter? And also how that dynamic may evolve into the back half?
Kristin Wolfe:
Yes, it's a good question. The external environment, it still is challenging, continues to be challenging. We're obviously very focused here with great leadership, as Michael just described. And we have made and will continue to make significant investments to mitigate shortage. As I mentioned earlier, we took physical inventory in the second quarter. This showed lower or better shortage performance than we had planned and better than last year, driving the merch margin favorability in the second quarter. We're obviously pleased with this result, although it is only one measurement at one point in time. For the back half, we plan to take another physical inventory in the fourth quarter to get the full year measurement for 2025. And we're hopeful that we continue to see the progress on shortage that we saw in Q2, given the high level of focus on this initiative across the organization. We'll plan to continue our intensified focus on reducing shortage and continue our shortage mitigation investments as well.
Operator:
Question comes from the line of Brooke Roach of Goldman Sachs.
Brooke Siler Roach:
Michael, could you provide additional color on back-to-school trends? What are you seeing in July and August so far?
Michael B. O'Sullivan:
Thank you for the question. We've been very pleased with our back-to-school business this year. Early back-to-school selling in July was especially strong. Now that momentum has moderated somewhat since then. But still for August month-to-date, I would describe our sales trend for back-to-school businesses as solid. One other callout. When we look at our back-to-school businesses on a multiyear stack basis, we're very pleased with the growth that we've seen over the last few years. And that was driven by a deliberate strategy by our merchants. We know that compared to other retailers, our customers tend to have a larger family size and more kids in the household. And these customers are very focused on value. They've been particularly hard hit by the higher cost of living over the last few years. So our merchants have been pursuing a deliberate strategy to increase our market share of back-to-school. I think the team has done a nice job meeting the needs of that customer by offering great value, meaning strong fashion, recognizable brands, terrific quality and unbeatable prices. If you look at the 2- or 3-year stack, it shows that this has worked. We've gained significant market share in back- to-school over the last few years.
Brooke Siler Roach:
Great. And then just a follow-up for Kristin. Can you talk a little bit about regional and category performance strengths and weaknesses that you saw in the second quarter?
Kristin Wolfe:
Yes. In terms of regional performance, the Southeast and the Northeast were the strongest regions in the quarter. All regions comped positively. The Midwest was the weakest region in the quarter. And as Michael noted in the prepared remarks, weather was a modest headwind earlier in the quarter. In terms of category performance, our strength was broad-based across the store. We saw the strongest performances in beauty, accessories and shoes, but apparel was also strong across ladies, men's and kids, all comping in line with the chain. In the quarter, home performance was softer for us, comping below the chain.
Operator:
Question for today comes from the line of Mark Altschwager of Baird.
Mark R. Altschwager:
Michael, a couple for you relates perhaps a bit to your commentary just a moment ago on back-to-school. But I was hoping you could update us on your elevation strategy and also speak to the opportunity and trends you're seeing with younger consumers.
Michael B. O'Sullivan:
Thank you for the -- those 2 questions. Obviously, I'll start with an update on our elevation strategy. Yes, we continue to be very pleased by the success that we've seen in our strategy to elevate the assortment. As a reminder, we launched that strategy about 1.5 years ago. The core idea was to elevate the assortment by raising the fashion content, the quality of the merchandise and the mix of better and more recognizable brands. The objective was to trade the customer up by offering better value at higher price points, but still to do that within a good, better, best context. I think our merchants have done a terrific job delivering great value at all price points within that elevated assortment. And that's clearly resonated with the customer. You can see it in the results in our comp growth and in our stronger merchandise margins. It's benefited us both in terms of sales and profitability. I'm very excited about our assortments for the back half, especially for holiday. We want -- our goal is to be proud of every hanger and proud of the value that we're offering on every hanger in the store. So when we developed our plans for the fall, our merchants really focused on ways to further reinforce this elevation strategy. Okay. I'm going to pivot now to the second -- your second question about our opportunity and any key trends with younger customers. Now my answer here is going to overlap a little bit with my earlier comments on back-to-school. But let me offer a little more context and color. At Burlington, we've always had a strong position with younger customers and young families, stronger than most other retailers. Parents, younger shoppers and young families are core and very important segments for us. When you walk into our stores, you can see it. You can see it when you look at the customers in our stores, a lot of young people, a lot of families with kids. You can also see it in the assortment. We have a stronger presentation and a greater penetration of juniors, young men's and kids' apparel, accessories and footwear than most of our competitors. Now we're doing a lot of things to attract and meet the needs of these shoppers, but they already boil down to one word, value. Young shoppers are often financially stretched and very value conscious. Now our merchants understand value does not mean cheap. Value is much more complex and depends on a mix of fashion, quality, brand and price. So for a shopper in our juniors department, for example, the key driver of value is likely to be fashion and style. In contrast, for a young mother buying clothes for her toddler, quality or brand might be more important. I think our merchant team, especially in these businesses is very skilled at building the assortment with the right mix of those value drivers. And that, more than anything, explains our growing strength with these younger shoppers.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd now like to hand the call back to Mr. Michael O'Sullivan for final remarks.
Michael B. O'Sullivan:
Thank you, Ellie. Let me close by thanking everyone on this call for your interest in Burlington Stores. We look forward to talking to you again in November to discuss our third quarter 2025 results. Thank you for your time today.
Operator:
Thank you for attending today's call. You may now disconnect. Goodbye.

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